A Dangerous World for Americans

Iran sees a picture that will allow it to dominate the Middle East and become a world power. Hezbollah is trying to take over Lebanon and make it a Shiite Theocracy allied with Iran. Lebanon would be used as a staging ground to build a modern armed force capable of invading and destroying Israel. It would be a force designed entirely to defeat Israel. It would combine features of conventional forces as well as guerrilla forces. It would use conventional, guerrilla and terror tactics.

Iran has absolutely no intention of complying with the U.N. resolution to cease its nuclear activities. There will be more equivocation and delay. Iran will certainly seek to build a nuclear weapon. For all we know, it may have one now or very soon. It will use the nuclear weapon to deter the U.S. and Israel from interfering with the Shiite build-up in Lebanon. It will use the nuclear weapon against Israel only if the forces from Lebanon fail (a nuclear weapon in Israel will kill a lot of Arabs as well as Israelis). Meanwhile, Israel will continue to be harassed by Hamas from the south.

We are seeing increasing competition between Sunni organizations (such as Al Qaeda) and Shiite Iran to score in the “Hate Israel and the U.S.” game. The difference is that Al Qaeda uses primarily terrorist tactics which, while unpleasant, can probably not threaten the existence of Israel or the power of the U.S. Iran with a strong force in Lebanon AND a nuclear weapon is a serious threat to Israel... and to the U.S.

What about the competition between Sunnis and Shiites? Is there a way to use this to our advantage. Possibly. But the “Hate Israel” motivation currently keeps the two together. Over time, the more moderate Sunni nations may come to view Shiite Iran as a larger threat to them and begin to come closer to the U.S. and moderate their view on Israel. These is, however, little sign of that today.

Pakistan stands at the edge of chaos. It has been unable to deal with the militant tribes in its northwest territories (where Usama bin Laden is hiding) or with the resurgent Taliban who uses Pakistan as a sanctuary.

Keep in mind that all of this, along with Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. is a part of the War on Terror… better called the Islamic Facist War.

So, what’s going to happen? Look for:

1. Iran and Syria to continue re-arming Hezbollah.
2. Hezbollah to gain political power in Lebanon
4. Iran to continue to develop nuclear weapons as fast as it can.
5. U.N. sanctions imposed on Iran (after August 31) to be non-existent or weak and ineffective (Iran can absorb any weak sanctions until and after it has the nuclear weapon).
6. A situation in which Israel must react to Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria and Iran soon or face the threat of a weakened state and eventual extinction.
7. A situation in which the U.S. must make some critical decisions to:
a. Preserve our ally, Israel.
b. Prevent Iran from dominating the Middle East.
c. Prevent the spread of Shiite Theocracies (instead of democracy and freedom).
d. Take action to route the Taliban and bin Laden out of Pakistan.

Europe will continue to be weak. They are becoming Muslim nations demographically.

Russia will will smile as they watch U.S. power diminish. The Russians are searching for ways to resume their role as a dominant world power.

China will continue to “be nice” but smile as they watch U.S. power diminish. They will continue their arms build-up and be prepared to challenge the U.S. in more and more arenas over the next ten years.

This is no place for inexperienced national leaders. We have never needed strong and enlightened leadership as much as we do now. We cannot afford the politics of weakness espoused by the far left and many Democrats. Nor can we afford the highly militant approach often seen on the far right. We need unity of purpose and quiet strength to confront this dangerous world!